{"id":18,"date":"2024-07-14T07:08:43","date_gmt":"2024-07-14T07:08:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/07\/14\/10-metu-jav-izdo-pajamingumo-tikroji-verte-ivertinimas-2024-m-liepos-12-d\/"},"modified":"2024-07-14T07:08:43","modified_gmt":"2024-07-14T07:08:43","slug":"10-metu-jav-izdo-pajamingumo-tikroji-verte-ivertinimas-2024-m-liepos-12-d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/07\/14\/10-metu-jav-izdo-pajamingumo-tikroji-verte-ivertinimas-2024-m-liepos-12-d\/","title":{"rendered":"10 met\u0173 JAV i\u017edo pajamingumo \u201etikroji vert\u0117\u201c \u012fvertinimas: 2024 m. liepos 12 d."},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Skirtumas tarp JAV 10 met\u0173 i\u017edo pajamingumo ir a  <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate\/\">\u201etikrosios vert\u0117s\u201c \u012fvertinimas<\/a> CapitalSpectator.com apskai\u010diavo, bir\u017eel\u012f suma\u017e\u0117jo iki \u017eemiausio lygio per tris m\u0117nesius.  Rinka pagr\u012fstas pajamingumas vis dar gerokai vir\u0161ija \u0161\u012f tikrosios vert\u0117s \u012fvertinim\u0105, bet kaip ir tik\u0117tasi pastaraisiais m\u0117nesiais (\u017er <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-13-march-2024\/\">\u010dia,<\/a> pavyzd\u017eiui) per didel\u0117 rinkos priemoka vis dar tur\u0117t\u0173 ma\u017e\u0117ti.<\/p>\n<p>Vakar staigus 10 met\u0173 pajamingumo suma\u017e\u0117jimas rei\u0161kia, kad tikrosios vert\u0117s \u012fvertis ma\u017eina rinkos pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0105.  Ketvirtadien\u012f pasirod\u017eius naujienoms, kad JAV vartotoj\u0173 infliacija per vienerius metus bir\u017eel\u012f nukrito iki 3,0%, o tai yra \u017eemiausia per daugiau nei trejus metus, 10 met\u0173 infliacija nukrito iki 4,22%, \u017eemiausio nuo kovo pabaigos.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.12jul2024-1.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22479\" src=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.12jul2024-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"990\" height=\"438\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.12jul2024-1.png 990w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.12jul2024-1-300x133.png 300w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.12jul2024-1-768x340.png 768w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.12jul2024-1-500x221.png 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 990px) 100vw, 990px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>A <a href=\"https:\/\/macro-markets.com\/f\/is-the-fed-risking-a-recession-by-not-cutting-interest-rates\">Fed fond\u0173 modelis<\/a> A\u0161 suk\u016briau tam <a href=\"https:\/\/macro-markets.com\/\">TMC tyrimas<\/a> si\u016blo, kad centrinio banko optimali tikslin\u0117 pal\u016bkan\u0173 norma tur\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti ma\u017edaug 50 bazini\u0173 punkt\u0173 ma\u017eesn\u0117, palyginti su dabartine 5,25\u20135,50 % tiksline norma.  Tuo tarpu <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">Fed fond\u0173 ateities sandoriai<\/a> nustato kainas su 90 % plius tikimybe, kad FED prad\u0117s ma\u017einti pal\u016bkan\u0173 normas rugs\u0117jo 18 d. FOMC susitikime (liepos 31 d. pos\u0117dyje poky\u010di\u0173 nenumatoma).  Tuo tarpu politikos po\u017ei\u016briu jautrus 2 met\u0173 pajamingumas vakar smarkiai nukrito ir nukrito iki 4,52%, tai yra \u017eemiausias nuo kovo prad\u017eios.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/fed.model_-1.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22460\" src=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/fed.model_-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/fed.model_-1.png 600w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/fed.model_-1-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/fed.model_-1-500x375.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Pagrindinis aspektas: rinkos spaudimas did\u0117ja d\u0117l ma\u017eesnio pajamingumo.  Savo ruo\u017etu, tik\u0117tinas 10 met\u0173 pelningumo skirtumo susiaur\u0117jimas, palyginti su \u201eCapital Spectator\u201c tikrosios vert\u0117s \u012fver\u010diu, vis dar grei\u010diausiai pasireik\u0161 artimiausiu metu.<\/p>\n<p>Dabartinis vidutinis tikrosios vert\u0117s \u012fvertinimas per <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/10-year-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate\/\">trys modeliai<\/a> bir\u017eelio m\u0117n. yra 3,40 %, o tai atitinka naujausius m\u0117nesio skai\u010diavimus.  \u0160is \u012fvertinimas yra 91 baziniu punktu ma\u017eesnis u\u017e faktin\u012f pra\u0117jusio m\u0117nesio 10 met\u0173 pajamingum\u0105.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short2024-07-12.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22478\" src=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short2024-07-12.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short2024-07-12.png 650w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short2024-07-12-300x208.png 300w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short2024-07-12-500x346.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Vidutin\u0117s tikrosios vert\u0117s ir rinkos kurso skirtumo steb\u0117jimas ir toliau atspindi didel\u0119 priemok\u0105.  Dabartinis skirtumas yra didelis, ta\u010diau dabartiniai duomenys rodo, kad skirtumas pasiek\u0117 auk\u0161\u010diausi\u0105 ta\u0161k\u0105 ir artimiausiais m\u0117nesiais gali dar labiau ma\u017e\u0117ti, arba taip rodo istorija.  Nors yra laikotarpi\u0173, kai rinkos \u012fmoka \u0161okteli, \u0161ie \u012fvykiai da\u017eniausiai b\u016bna gana trumpi, po kuri\u0173 seka normalizavimosi laikotarpiai, kaip parodyta toliau pateiktoje diagramoje.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short_.sp2024-07-12.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22480\" src=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short_.sp2024-07-12.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"650\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short_.sp2024-07-12.png 650w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short_.sp2024-07-12-300x208.png 300w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/ten.yr_.fair_.val_.all_.short_.sp2024-07-12-500x346.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 650px) 100vw, 650px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>N\u0117ra garantijos, kad istorija pasikartos, ty skirtumas suma\u017e\u0117s, ta\u010diau \u012fvair\u016bs veiksniai rodo, kad tai yra pagr\u012fsta prognoz\u0117.  Pa\u017eym\u0117tina, kad yra <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/is-the-us-economy-flirting-with-recession\/\">\u017eenklai, rodantys<\/a> kad JAV ekonomikos augimas l\u0117t\u0117ja \u2013 tai yra labai svarbus veiksnys, kuris, jei bus teisingas, artimiausiomis savait\u0117mis ir m\u0117nesiais grei\u010diausiai suma\u017eins 10 met\u0173 pajamingum\u0105.<!-- Link Wrapper --><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebrinsmerefunds.com\/\"><br \/><!-- Image to display --><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 910px; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/i.imgur.com\/UdRz0tc.jpg\" alt=\"Paspaud\u017eiamas vaizdas\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/10-year-us-treasury-yield-fair-value-estimate-12-july-2024\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Skirtumas tarp JAV 10 met\u0173 i\u017edo pajamingumo ir a \u201etikrosios vert\u0117s\u201c \u012fvertinimas CapitalSpectator.com apskai\u010diavo, bir\u017eel\u012f suma\u017e\u0117jo iki \u017eemiausio lygio per tris m\u0117nesius. Rinka pagr\u012fstas pajamingumas vis dar gerokai vir\u0161ija \u0161\u012f tikrosios vert\u0117s \u012fvertinim\u0105, bet kaip ir tik\u0117tasi pastaraisiais m\u0117nesiais (\u017er \u010dia, pavyzd\u017eiui) per didel\u0117 rinkos priemoka vis dar tur\u0117t\u0173 ma\u017e\u0117ti. Vakar staigus 10 met\u0173 pajamingumo [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":19,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika-finansai-bankininkyste"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=18"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/18\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/19"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=18"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=18"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=18"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}