{"id":251,"date":"2024-08-12T17:06:14","date_gmt":"2024-08-12T17:06:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/08\/12\/katastrofiska-skola-didelis-paveikslas\/"},"modified":"2024-08-12T17:06:14","modified_gmt":"2024-08-12T17:06:14","slug":"katastrofiska-skola-didelis-paveikslas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/08\/12\/katastrofiska-skola-didelis-paveikslas\/","title":{"rendered":"Katastrofi\u0161ka skola \u2013 didelis paveikslas"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Treasury-Bond-Increase.jpg\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy lazy-hidden alignnone wp-image-333188\" data-lazy-type=\"image\" src=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Treasury-Bond-Increase-1024x730.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"513\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\"\/><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-333188\" src=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Treasury-Bond-Increase-1024x730.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"513\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Treasury-Bond-Increase-1024x730.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Treasury-Bond-Increase-300x214.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Treasury-Bond-Increase-768x547.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Treasury-Bond-Increase-250x178.jpg 250w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Treasury-Bond-Increase-1536x1095.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/Treasury-Bond-Increase.jpg 1684w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p>Esu giliai \u012fsitrauk\u0119s \u012f savo knygos ra\u0161ymo darb\u0105 ir aptariu federalin\u0119 skol\u0105, kai matau a <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/gameoftrades_\/status\/1821572073778540820?s=46\">tviteryje<\/a> tai tiesiog \u012fk\u016bnija vis\u0105 \u017eanr\u0105.<\/p>\n<p>Visas atskleidimas: <a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2021\/09\/deficit-bullshit\/\">Mano pirmenyb\u0117s<\/a> Kalbant apie federalin\u0119 skol\u0105, a\u0161 ne\u017einau, kur reik\u0117t\u0173 nubr\u0117\u017eti per daug rib\u0105, bet \u017einau, kad n\u0117 vienas baisus dalykas, apie kur\u012f buvome \u012fsp\u0117ti per pastaruosius 50 met\u0173 d\u0117l per didel\u0117s skolos, ne\u012fvyko.<\/p>\n<p><em>NE. VIENA. DALYKAS.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Buvome \u012fsp\u0117ti, kad deficitin\u0117s i\u0161laidos i\u0161stums privat\u0173 kapital\u0105, u\u017egniau\u017es inovacijas ir nauj\u0173 \u012fmoni\u0173 k\u016brim\u0105; d\u0117l to JAV skolinimosi i\u0161laidos smarkiai padid\u0117s, tod\u0117l skolos bus ne\u012fmanoma valdyti; priversti JAV doler\u012f radikaliai nuvertinti vis\u0173 kit\u0173 valiut\u0173 at\u017evilgiu ir taip su\u017elugdyti JAV ekonomik\u0105; sukelti siau\u010dian\u010di\u0105 infliacij\u0105, pakeldama kainas iki anks\u010diau nematyto lygio; galiausiai, stabdo vis\u0105 ekonomik\u0105.<\/p>\n<p>Tai, kad n\u0117 vienas i\u0161 \u0161i\u0173 dalyk\u0173 ne\u012fvyko, ver\u010dia mane steb\u0117tis, kod\u0117l vis dar atkreipiame d\u0117mes\u012f \u012f \u0161iuos deficitinius vanagus.<\/p>\n<p>Taigi, kai matau toki\u0105 diagram\u0105, kaip \u0161i, \u012f galv\u0105 ateina du dalykai, pirma, kad \u017ei\u016br\u0117ti \u012f krizi\u0173 vir\u0161\u016bnes \u2013 GFC ir Covid-19 \u2013 i\u0161 esm\u0117s yra problemati\u0161ka; j\u016bs naudojate i\u0161skirtines emisijas, kurios atsiranda kart\u0105 per 15\u201320 met\u0173, o ne \u012fprastos i\u017edo emisijos.<\/p>\n<p>Antra, ar tur\u0117tume ignoruoti poky\u010dius, \u012fvykusius per t\u0105 15 met\u0173 laikotarp\u012f? Ar mes tiesiog ignoruojame ekonomikos ir JAV gyventoj\u0173 skai\u010diaus augim\u0105? The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrotrends.net\/global-metrics\/countries\/USA\/united-states\/population#google_vignette\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">JAV gyventoj\u0173 \u0161iandien<\/a> yra 341 814 420; 2009 m. buvo 308 512 035. Ar tiesiog ignoruojame tai? The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.macrotrends.net\/global-metrics\/countries\/USA\/united-states\/gdp-gross-domestic-product#:~:text=U.S.%20gdp%20for%202022%20was,a%204.13%25%20increase%20from%202018.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">JAV ekonomika<\/a> 2022 m. buvo 25 439,70 mlrd. USD; 2009 m. buvo 14 478,06 mlrd. USD; ignoruoti ir tai?<\/p>\n<p>Ar apsimetame, kad infliacijos nebuvo? Beje, <a href=\"https:\/\/data.bls.gov\/cgi-bin\/cpicalc.pl?cost1=130&amp;year1=200901&amp;year2=202406\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">infliacij\u0105 koreguoti<\/a> kad 1,3 T USD nuo 2009 m., o iki 2024 m. bir\u017eelio m\u0117n. gausite (palaukite) <span id=\"answer\">193,44 T USD.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>Ar mes velni\u0161kai nusiteik\u0119 daryti i\u0161vad\u0105, kad \u0161i nauja skola yra netik\u0117tai per didel\u0117, tod\u0117l turime nepaisyti vis\u0173 kit\u0173 kontekstualizuojan\u010di\u0173 duomen\u0173?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">~~~<\/p>\n<p>Kalb\u0117ti apie ateit\u012f reikia daug daugiau nuolankumo, nei atrodo, kad dauguma i\u0161 m\u016bs\u0173 Volstryte turi; Mes ne\u017einome, k\u0105 atne\u0161 ateitis, ne\u012fsivaizduojame atsitiktini\u0173 \u012fvyki\u0173, kurie gali sugriauti m\u016bs\u0173 pernelyg pasitikin\u010dias prognozes. Per daug i\u0161 m\u016bs\u0173 priima pasitik\u0117jim\u0105 savimi, <em>visk\u0105 \u017einantis<\/em> persona, nes \u017einome, kad investuojanti visuomen\u0117 teikia pirmenyb\u0119 tam, o ne tiesai: niekas nieko ne\u017eino, o ateitis i\u0161 prigimties yra ne\u017einoma ir ne\u017einoma.<\/p>\n<p>Atsipra\u0161ome, bet \u201epadirbk, kol padarysi\u201c, o laukini\u0173 nepagr\u012fst\u0173 ideologini\u0173 sp\u0117lioni\u0173 k\u0117limas atrodo prastas planas galvoti apie ateit\u012f&#8230;<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/gameoftrades_\/status\/1821572073778540820\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy lazy-hidden alignnone wp-image-333191\" data-lazy-type=\"image\" src=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/not-shocking-861x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"476\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-333191\" src=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/not-shocking-861x1024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"400\" height=\"476\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/not-shocking-861x1024.png 861w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/not-shocking-252x300.png 252w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/not-shocking-768x913.png 768w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/not-shocking-250x297.png 250w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/not-shocking.png 1009w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 400px) 100vw, 400px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><em>Anks\u010diau<\/em>:<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2021\/09\/deficit-bullshit\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Laikas nustoti tik\u0117ti deficito kvailyst\u0117mis<\/a> (2021 m. rugs\u0117jo 3 d.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2021\/01\/markets-drivers-in-2021\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Stimulas, daugiau stimul\u0173 ir mokes\u010diai<\/a> (2021 m. sausio 25 d.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2020\/12\/cost-of-financing-us-deficits\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Suma\u017e\u0117ja JAV deficito finansavimo i\u0161laidos<\/a> (2020 m. gruod\u017eio 18 d.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2017\/10\/can-please-honest-debate-tax-policy\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Ar galime nuo\u0161ird\u017eiai diskutuoti apie mokes\u010di\u0173 politik\u0105?<\/a> (2017 m. spalio 2 d.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2010\/07\/deficit-chicken-hawks-vs-ronald-reagan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Deficit Chicken Hawks prie\u0161 Ronald\u0105 Reagan\u0105<\/a> (2010 m. liepos 13 d.)<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/politics-investing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Politika ir investavimas<\/a><\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-button pf-button-content pf-alignleft\"><a href=\"#\" rel=\"nofollow\" onclick=\"window.print(); return false;\" title=\"Printer Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy lazy-hidden pf-button-img\" data-lazy-type=\"image\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/printfriendly-button.png\" alt=\"Patogus spausdinimas, PDF ir el\" style=\"width: 112px;height: 24px;\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"pf-button-img\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/printfriendly-button.png\" alt=\"Patogus spausdinimas, PDF ir el\" style=\"width: 112px;height: 24px;\"\/><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2024\/08\/catastrophizing-debt\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Esu giliai \u012fsitrauk\u0119s \u012f savo knygos ra\u0161ymo darb\u0105 ir aptariu federalin\u0119 skol\u0105, kai matau a tviteryje tai tiesiog \u012fk\u016bnija vis\u0105 \u017eanr\u0105. Visas atskleidimas: Mano pirmenyb\u0117s Kalbant apie federalin\u0119 skol\u0105, a\u0161 ne\u017einau, kur reik\u0117t\u0173 nubr\u0117\u017eti per daug rib\u0105, bet \u017einau, kad n\u0117 vienas baisus dalykas, apie kur\u012f buvome \u012fsp\u0117ti per pastaruosius 50 met\u0173 d\u0117l per didel\u0117s [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":252,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-251","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika-finansai-bankininkyste"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=251"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/251\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/252"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=251"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=251"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=251"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}