{"id":304,"date":"2024-08-19T14:26:29","date_gmt":"2024-08-19T14:26:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/08\/19\/ar-praejusios-savaites-optimistiski-ekonominiu-duomenu-velavimo-rodikliai-sumazins\/"},"modified":"2024-08-19T14:26:29","modified_gmt":"2024-08-19T14:26:29","slug":"ar-praejusios-savaites-optimistiski-ekonominiu-duomenu-velavimo-rodikliai-sumazins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/08\/19\/ar-praejusios-savaites-optimistiski-ekonominiu-duomenu-velavimo-rodikliai-sumazins\/","title":{"rendered":"Ar pra\u0117jusios savait\u0117s optimisti\u0161ki ekonomini\u0173 duomen\u0173 v\u0117lavimo rodikliai suma\u017eins?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p>Atrod\u0117, kad JAV recesijos rizika suma\u017e\u0117jo po pra\u0117jusios savait\u0117s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/latest-economic-data-suggests-us-expansion-continues\/\">skatinantys atnaujinimai<\/a> ma\u017emeninei prekybai ir ie\u0161kiniams be darbo. Ar geresni, nei tik\u0117tasi, skai\u010diai atid\u0117s pla\u010diai tik\u0117tin\u0105 pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0173 ma\u017einim\u0105, kur\u012f rinkos \u012fkainoja Federalinio rezervo banko politikos pos\u0117dyje rugs\u0117jo 18 d.?<\/p>\n<p>Sprend\u017eiant i\u0161 dabartini\u0173 rinkos s\u0105lyg\u0173, kartu su CapitalSpectator.com patentuotu modeliavimu, yra \u012ftikinamas atvejis, kad \u0161velnesn\u0117s politikos re\u017eimo prad\u017eia vis dar vyksta kit\u0105 m\u0117nes\u012f. Prad\u0117kime nuo <a href=\"https:\/\/www.cmegroup.com\/markets\/interest-rates\/cme-fedwatch-tool.html\">Fed fond\u0173 ateities sandoriai,<\/a> kurios kainodaros fakti\u0161kai u\u017etikrindamos, kad centrinis bankas suma\u017eins tikslin\u0119 pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0105 rugs\u0117jo 18 d.<\/p>\n<p>Politikai jautrus 2 met\u0173 i\u017edo pajamingumas taip pat tvirtai laikosi pal\u016bkan\u0173 ma\u017einimo prognozi\u0173. Penktadienio pabaigoje 2 met\u0173 pajamingumas nukrito iki 4,06% (rugpj\u016b\u010dio 16 d.). \u0160is lygis yra daugiau nei vienu procentiniu punktu \u017eemiau dabartin\u0117s 5,25\u20135,50 % FED fond\u0173 tikslin\u0117s normos \u2013 did\u017eiausias skirtumas per daugiau nei metus, o tai yra defacto pal\u016bkan\u0173 ma\u017einimo prognoz\u0117 remiantis minios kolektyvine i\u0161mintimi.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/ff.2yr.rates1_.2024-08-19.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22683\" src=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/ff.2yr.rates1_.2024-08-19.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/ff.2yr.rates1_.2024-08-19.png 600w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/ff.2yr.rates1_.2024-08-19-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/ff.2yr.rates1_.2024-08-19-500x375.png 500w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Kita vertus, apsvarstykite CapitalSpectator.com stebim\u0105 model\u012f, kuris naudoja infliacij\u0105, i\u017edo pajamingumo kreiv\u0119, JAV ekonomik\u0105 ir kitus veiksnius, kad \u012fvertint\u0173 optimali\u0105 Fed fond\u0173 pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0105 realiuoju laiku. Svarbiausias dalykas: politikos pal\u016bkan\u0173 norma ir toliau atrodo pav\u0117luota suma\u017einti, kaip parodyta toliau pateiktoje diagramoje.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fed.model_.19aug2024.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-22685\" src=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fed.model_.19aug2024.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"450\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fed.model_.19aug2024.png 600w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fed.model_.19aug2024-300x225.png 300w, https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/fed.model_.19aug2024-500x375.png 500w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>\u017dinoma, niekas n\u0117ra tikras, tod\u0117l protinga apsvarstyti, kas gal\u0117t\u0173 \u012ftikinti FED atid\u0117ti suma\u017einim\u0105 kito m\u0117nesio susitikime. \u012e trump\u0105j\u012f s\u0105ra\u0161\u0105 \u012ftraukti patikimi gaunami ekonominiai duomenys ir (arba) auk\u0161tesni nei tik\u0117tasi infliacijos skai\u010diai. Pastaroji istorija sumenkina tikimyb\u0119, kad per ateinan\u010dias keturias savaites ekonomin\u0117s ataskaitos bus i\u0161 esm\u0117s kitokios nei ta, kuri\u0105 mat\u0117me pastaraisiais m\u0117nesiais. Apibendrinant, kuklus, bet l\u0117t\u0117jantis augimas kartu su besit\u0119sian\u010dia dezinfliacija i\u0161lieka bazine prognoze.<\/p>\n<p>Tuo tarpu rinkos daug d\u0117mesio skirs komentarams i\u0161 Fed Jackson Hole simpoziumo, kuris prasid\u0117s ketvirtadien\u012f (rugpj\u016b\u010dio 22 d.). Svarbiausias dalykas: FED pirmininko Jerome&#8217;o Powello kalba penktadien\u012f (rugpj\u016b\u010dio 23 d.) 10:00 ryt\u0173.<\/p>\n<p>\u201eMes manome, kad Fed grei\u010diausiai duos \u017eenkl\u0105 Jackson Hole, kad per kit\u0105 pos\u0117d\u012f tik\u0117tinas suma\u017einimas, darant prielaid\u0105, kad infliacijos pa\u017eanga i\u0161liks. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/f1f7107f-7679-46cd-b899-383e5c8e07ca\">prognozuoja<\/a> Markas Cabana, vadovaujantis JAV pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0173 strategijai Bank of America. Galiausiai, gaunami ekonominiai duomenys bus lemiamas veiksnys, pa\u017eymi jis. \u201eTaigi mes nemanome, kad Fed u\u017edarys duris galimybei atlikti didesnius suma\u017einimus, jei to reik\u0117s, bet grei\u010diausiai tai neduos daug signalo, kad taip nutiks.<\/p>\n<p><!-- Link Wrapper --><br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thebrinsmerefunds.com\/\"><br \/><!-- Image to display --><br \/><img decoding=\"async\" style=\"width: 910px; height: auto;\" src=\"https:\/\/i.imgur.com\/UdRz0tc.jpg\" alt=\"Paspaud\u017eiamas vaizdas\"\/><br \/><\/a><\/p>\n<\/p><\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalspectator.com\/will-last-weeks-upbeat-economic-data-delay-rate-cuts\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Atrod\u0117, kad JAV recesijos rizika suma\u017e\u0117jo po pra\u0117jusios savait\u0117s skatinantys atnaujinimai ma\u017emeninei prekybai ir ie\u0161kiniams be darbo. Ar geresni, nei tik\u0117tasi, skai\u010diai atid\u0117s pla\u010diai tik\u0117tin\u0105 pal\u016bkan\u0173 norm\u0173 ma\u017einim\u0105, kur\u012f rinkos \u012fkainoja Federalinio rezervo banko politikos pos\u0117dyje rugs\u0117jo 18 d.? Sprend\u017eiant i\u0161 dabartini\u0173 rinkos s\u0105lyg\u0173, kartu su CapitalSpectator.com patentuotu modeliavimu, yra \u012ftikinamas atvejis, kad \u0161velnesn\u0117s politikos [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":305,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-304","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika-finansai-bankininkyste"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/304","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=304"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/304\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/305"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=304"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=304"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=304"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}