{"id":726,"date":"2024-10-09T20:39:53","date_gmt":"2024-10-09T20:39:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/10\/09\/atm-valuation-is-an-exercise-in-faith-with-aswath-damodaran\/"},"modified":"2024-10-09T20:39:53","modified_gmt":"2024-10-09T20:39:53","slug":"atm-valuation-is-an-exercise-in-faith-with-aswath-damodaran","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/10\/09\/atm-valuation-is-an-exercise-in-faith-with-aswath-damodaran\/","title":{"rendered":"ATM: Valuation is an Exercise in Faith with Aswath Damodaran"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><iframe style=\"border-radius: 12px;\" data-lazy-type=\"iframe\" data-src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/3ppsVqrqETMRYTK6OHBU7x?utm_source=generator\" width=\"100%\" height=\"352\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"lazy lazy-hidden mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><noscript><iframe loading=\"lazy\" style=\"border-radius: 12px;\" src=\"https:\/\/open.spotify.com\/embed\/episode\/3ppsVqrqETMRYTK6OHBU7x?utm_source=generator\" width=\"100%\" height=\"352\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>ATM: Valuation is an exercise in faith<\/strong> with Aswath Damodaran. (October 9, 2024)<\/p>\n<p>Do you understand the difference between price and value? How much faith do you have that any stock or market will eventually return to its intrinsic value?<\/p>\n<p>Full\u00a0transcript below.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">~~~<\/p>\n<p>About this week\u2019s guest:<\/p>\n<p>Professor Aswath Damodaran of NYU Stern School of Business is known as the Dean of Valuation.\u00a0He has written numerous books on valuation and finance.\u00a0His latest book is \u201c<em>The Corporate Life Cycle: Business Investment and Management Implications<\/em>.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>For more info, see:<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Professional Bio<\/p>\n<p>Blog: Musings on Markets<\/p>\n<p>Masters in Business<\/p>\n<p>LinkedIn<\/p>\n<p>Twitter<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">~~~<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Find all of the previous\u00a0<em>At the Money<\/em>\u00a0episodes here, and in the MiB feed on\u00a0Apple Podcasts,\u00a0YouTube,\u00a0Spotify, and\u00a0Bloomberg. And find the entire musical playlist of <em>At the Money on Spotify<\/em><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><iframe class=\"lazy lazy-hidden\" style=\"width: 100%; max-width: 660px; overflow: hidden; border-radius: 10px;\" data-lazy-type=\"iframe\" data-src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/at-the-money-valuation-is-an-exercise-in-faith\/id730188152?i=1000672343631\" height=\"175\" frameborder=\"0\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><noscript><iframe style=\"width: 100%; max-width: 660px; overflow: hidden; border-radius: 10px;\" src=\"https:\/\/embed.podcasts.apple.com\/us\/podcast\/at-the-money-valuation-is-an-exercise-in-faith\/id730188152?i=1000672343631\" height=\"175\" frameborder=\"0\" sandbox=\"allow-forms allow-popups allow-same-origin allow-scripts allow-storage-access-by-user-activation allow-top-navigation-by-user-activation\"><\/iframe><\/noscript><\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p>\u00a0<\/p>\n<p><strong>Transcript<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<p>(Intro: <em>\u2018Cause I gotta\u2019 have faith; I gotta have faith; Because I gotta have faith, faith, faith; I got to have faith, faith, faith. Baby<\/em>)<\/p>\n<p>Oscar Wilde once described a cynic as a man who knows the price of everything, but the value of nothing. Nowhere is understanding value more important than in the stock market. Sure, prices get quoted every second, every tick, but value, that\u2019s a much more challenging problem. Whether you\u2019re buying broad indices or purchasing specific stocks it pays to not be a cynic and understand both price and value of your investments.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m Barry Ritholtz, and on today\u2019s edition of at the money, we\u2019re going to explain how to become more savvy about understanding equity values. The value you pay for your investment has an outsized impact on your long term returns.<\/p>\n<p>To help us unpack all of this and what it means for your portfolio, let\u2019s bring in Professor Aswath Damodaran of NYU School of Business. He is often referred to as the Dean of Valuation for his extensive work in the area. He\u2019s written numerous books on the subject, including Damodaran on Valuation, Narrative and Numbers, and the textbook Investment Valuation Tools and Techniques for Determining the Value of Any Asset.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: So Professor, let\u2019s just start with the basic question. Why are valuations so important when it comes to equities? I\u2019m going to give you a cynical answer. They\u2019re not important if you\u2019re a trader. Traders live on pricing. I mean, the essence of pricing is you buy at a low price, you sell at a high price, and it doesn\u2019t really matter why the price changes if you get the direction right.<\/p>\n<p>Value matters if you\u2019re an investor. To me, the definition of an investor is you buy something for less than what it\u2019s worth. And the essence of values, you\u2019re trying to estimate what something is worth. As I said, it depends on the philosophy you bring in. Are you an investor or you\u2019re a trader? Because that\u2019s going to drive whether value matters to you.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: So let\u2019s talk about identifying that intrinsic value of what something is worth. With any specific company. How can you determine?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: It\u2019s as old as time that Venetian glassmaker who sold his business in the Middle Ages probably sold it to somebody, bought it because of the cash flows he generated, the risk in those cash flows and how much those cash flows are going to grow.<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s cash flows, growth and risk. That\u2019s the essence of value. That\u2019s always been true.<\/p>\n<p>We act like we invented valuation in the last century in finance because we came up with all these neat little models and metrics to measure risk and bring it into what you need to make. But value has always been driven by cash flows, growth and risk and how you get to that value, I use intrinsic valuation, , in that sense as capturing anybody who thinks about those fundamentals.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: Let\u2019s dive into that intrinsic valuation based on cash flow, growth and risk. What different ways are there to measure the fundamental value of a company? And, and how do these different valuations reveal intrinsic value?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: I mean ultimately cash flows, growth and risk are not going to be different for different people. The way we think about risk though can differ depending on who you are as an investor and what do you think matters?<\/p>\n<p>Ii\u2019ll give you an example in traditional finance. We think about risk by looking at how Prices move for a stock relative to the market.<\/p>\n<p>But there are intrinsic value people argue the true measure of risk is what happens to your earnings, your revenues, your operating metrics. So even within people who believe in intrinsic value, we can have disagreements about how to measure risk. What is the right cash flow to look at? And what\u2019s a growth rate that you think about over what period? So while we might have 20 people in a room, all of whom buy into intrinsic value, we can come up with 20 different estimates of intrinsic value for the same company at the same point in time.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: So we always hear about price to sales, price to book, price to earnings. Are these all that different? They\u2019re just variations on fundamentals. Or are they very different ways of looking at the same company?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: Philosophically, they\u2019re very different because when you compute the price earnings or the EV EBITDA price to book for a company, what you do is you compare to other companies out there and you make a judgment and saying, Hey, this company trades at 10 times earnings. Other companies like it \u2013 and I\u2019m gonna put quotes on like it \u2013 trade 15 times earnings. Therefore, it\u2019s cheap.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s a pricing judgment. There\u2019s nothing value in here. There\u2019s no intrinsic value judgment. That\u2019s why all of sell side equity research, I would argue is all about pricing. It\u2019s not about valuation.<\/p>\n<p>Nothing wrong with it, but we should be honest about what we\u2019re doing. So when you use ratios it\u2019s because you want to find something cheap by comparing it to other things out there that are being traded right now and you\u2019re looking at what other people are paying.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: So you\u2019re looking at price. When people look at stocks that way, they\u2019re looking at price and relative valuation, not intrinsic value. (Exactly) Let\u2019s talk about some of the things you\u2019ve explained in your, your books. Valuation requires a deeper understanding of the business, including how it makes money and its future prospects. Give us a little more detail on that.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: I\u2019ll give you an example. It\u2019s a personal example. You know, I, I bought Nvidia. Yeah. purely by luck in 2018. I didn\u2019t see AI coming, none of this stuff. So sometimes your best investments happen by accident.\u00a0 So last year I had to revalue NVIDIA for a simple reason. I mean, I bought it at $27 per share. The stock was trading at $800 per share and I had to decide, is it time to leave? So as I sat down to value NVIDIA, I started with the presumption that it was a computer chip company that had made chips and sold them.<\/p>\n<p>And I had to estimate cash flows based on that. It\u2019s only as I started digging a little deeper that I realized that they\u2019re not a chip maker, they\u2019re a chip designer. Every NVIDIA chip is made by TSMC \u2013 which basically changes the way you think about the business.<\/p>\n<p>If you\u2019re doing pricing, you might be able to gloss over it. It doesn\u2019t matter that they do it. But if you\u2019re doing intrinsic valuation, because I have to estimate cash flows, I have to think about what is it that they spend to create these revenues. And that requires an understanding of how they conduct their business.<\/p>\n<p>I mean, Warren Buffett, a famous saying that he doesn\u2019t buy stocks, he buys shares of businesses. That to me, in essence, is what you\u2019re doing in intrinsic valuation. You\u2019re not buying a share of Apple or a share of Amazon. You\u2019re buying a <em>slice of those businesses<\/em>. And if that\u2019s what you\u2019re doing, you better understand what you\u2019re buying before you pay a price.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: So can we apply the same theory of valuation to broad indices as opposed to just individual stocks?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: Absolutely. I mean, it\u2019s cash flows, growth and risk drive the value of Nvidia; Cash flows, growth and risk is what drives the value of the S&amp;P500 or the NASDAQ. In fact, that\u2019s a process I use at the start of every month to come up with an estimate of what investors are pricing in the S&amp;P500 and what they can expect to earn given the cash flow. It\u2019s a very intrinsic value view of what can you expect to make as a rate of return on an index.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: So that raises the real important question: What do these measures of evaluations mean for future expected returns?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: The more you pay for something, let\u2019s cut away from all of the noise in this process. The more you pay for something up front, the lower your expected returns are going to be. (that\u2019s just common sense).<\/p>\n<p>So when you buy the S&amp;P 500 at 5,300, you can expect to earn a lower return than if you bought it at 5,100. So if you bought it last week, your expected return was lower than if you bought it today.<\/p>\n<p>And that\u2019s at the basis of intrinsic value. It\u2019s about paying the right price for something up front is the most critical decision you make.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: You, you consistently in all your books emphasize that value is not price. So how should investors think about the difference between the quoted fluctuated price we see every day, the quoted fluctuating price that we see every moment on the market and that deep intrinsic value?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: Recognize there are two different processes. Nothing makes one better than the other. Different processes. Values driven by changes in your earnings, cash flows, growth, and risk. And that\u2019s captured by changing value over time.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m not saying intrinsic value is somehow a stable stagnant number. The intrinsic value of NVIDIA doubled because of its entry into AI. Intrinsic value can change.<\/p>\n<p>Price is driven by demand and supply; driven by mood and momentum. And I think one of the best indicators you can take a mood and momentum is when the momentum is good, all news is good news.<\/p>\n<p>In fact, there\u2019s a whole segment of finance called behavioral finance. And behavioral finance tries to explain why price can not only deviate from value, but stay different for long periods.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s this inherent belief that value investors have that price will move towards value and it\u2019ll happen quickly.\u00a0 That\u2019s not true. Price can deviate from value. It can stay separated from value for long periods, which means if you\u2019re an intrinsic value investor, you\u2019re going to get incredibly frustrated because you think you got it right, but you keep losing money.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: So you\u2019re referring to mean reversion. The expectation is that pricey things eventually come back down to fair value and inexpensive things will eventually be recognized and return to fair value. How long does this process take? Is it guaranteed to happen? Does that mean reversion always occur?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: It\u2019s not just mean reversion \u2013 it\u2019s an assumption that values what matters in the long term.<\/p>\n<p>When I start my valuation class, I started the question. Do you have faith?<\/p>\n<p>My students look at me and say, it\u2019s a valuation class. What are you talking about? I said, the essence of investing is faith, faith that your estimated value is the right value and faith that the price will move to value.<\/p>\n<p>And the essence of faith is, if you ask me to prove it, and if you told me, \u201cTell me what will cause it to happen,\u201d my answer is, I don\u2019t know, it\u2019s a mystery. I mean, it\u2019s like going to church and going up to your pastor or your rabbi and saying, can you give me some proof that God exists? I keep coming back every, you know, every week because I,\u00a0 and if that rabbi or priest or, you know, is telling you the truth, they should say, look, you know, I can\u2019t give you that proof, it\u2019s faith.<\/p>\n<p>And I think that\u2019s what makes investing so difficult is it\u2019s driven by faith rather than by proof. So if you ask me, you know, if I bought something undervalued, am I guaranteed to make money in the long term? Absolutely not. And you have to be okay with it. If you\u2019re not okay with it, buy an index fund. Or be a trader.<\/p>\n<p>The essence of investing is you can do everything right.\u00a0 And I have nothing to show for it, and you have to be okay with that.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: Wow. So, Professor, bottom line it for us, when we think about valuation, when investors look at equities, what should be foremost in their mind before deploying capital?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Aswath Damodaran<\/strong>: First, be honest with yourself. Now, what is the game you\u2019re playing? If you\u2019re playing the trading game, don\u2019t lie to yourself about caring about fundamentals and earnings and cash flows. Just play the trading game. Look at charts, look at technical indicators, look at mood and momentum, because that\u2019s what you\u2019re playing.<\/p>\n<p>If you want to be an investor, you need to do your homework. You can\u2019t hide behind the fact of \u201cI\u2019ve never done an accounting or evaluation class. I don\u2019t understand these financial statements.\u201d The essence of investing is you got to be able to look through those financial statements and be able to gauge the value of a company.<\/p>\n<p>You might not want to use the full technology of intrinsic valuation, but you need to start thinking about businesses and value in a much more, in a much deeper way than you\u2019re doing right now.<\/p>\n<p>If that\u2019s not your thing, that\u2019s fine. There are lots of people who get rich as traders and there\u2019s nothing wrong with trading. Just play that game well.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Barry Ritholtz<\/strong>: So, to wrap up, investors who have a long-term time horizon should be very aware of the variations in valuations. The more you pay for a given stock or a given market index, the lower your future expected returns are. Understand that there are no guarantees in the market, and merely buying cheap stocks is no guarantee that you\u2019re going to outperform or even market perform in the future.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m Barry Ritholtz, and this is Bloomberg\u2019s At The Money.<\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-button pf-button-content pf-alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"pf-button-img\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/printfriendly-button.png\" alt=\"Print Friendly, PDF &amp; Email\" style=\"width: 112px;height: 24px;\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2024\/10\/atm-valuation-is-faith\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\ufeff \ufeff \u00a0 \u00a0 ATM: Valuation is an exercise in faith with Aswath Damodaran. (October 9, 2024) Do you understand the difference between price and value? How much faith do you have that any stock or market will eventually return to its intrinsic value? Full\u00a0transcript below. ~~~ About this week\u2019s guest: Professor Aswath Damodaran of [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":62,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[952,948,953,950,951,949],"class_list":["post-726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika-finansai-bankininkyste","tag-aswath","tag-atm","tag-damodaran","tag-exercise","tag-faith","tag-valuation"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 4.9.8 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\ufeff\ufeff ATM: Valuation is an exercise in faith with Aswath Damodaran. 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