{"id":899,"date":"2024-10-24T21:10:06","date_gmt":"2024-10-24T21:10:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/10\/24\/3-didzioji-depresija-gfc-1970-ieji-ir-2020-ieji\/"},"modified":"2024-10-24T21:10:06","modified_gmt":"2024-10-24T21:10:06","slug":"3-didzioji-depresija-gfc-1970-ieji-ir-2020-ieji","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/2024\/10\/24\/3-didzioji-depresija-gfc-1970-ieji-ir-2020-ieji\/","title":{"rendered":"3 %: Did\u017eioji depresija, GFC, 1970-ieji ir 2020-ieji?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p> <br \/>\n<\/p>\n<div>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-338442\" src=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/10-yr-rolling.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"720\" height=\"405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/10-yr-rolling.png 1749w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/10-yr-rolling-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/10-yr-rolling-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/10-yr-rolling-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/10-yr-rolling-250x141.png 250w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/10-yr-rolling-1536x864.png 1536w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 720px) 100vw, 720px\"\/><\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">K\u0105 bendro turi Did\u017eioji depresija, Did\u017eioji finans\u0173 kriz\u0117, 1970-\u0173j\u0173 stagnacija ir ateinantys 10 met\u0173?<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Jei esate \u201eGoldman Sachs\u201c strategas, tada daug. Bent jau jei prognozuosite rinkos gr\u0105\u017e\u0105 per ateinant\u012f de\u0161imtmet\u012f (lol), galite pamatyti ne\u012ftik\u0117tin\u0173 pana\u0161um\u0173.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">ICYMI<\/span>: Davidas Kostinas ir jo strateg\u0173 komanda mato 72 % tikimyb\u0119, kad S&#038;P 500 indeksas bus prastesnis u\u017e i\u017edo vertybinius popierius, o 33 % tikimyb\u0117, kad akcijos gr\u012f\u0161 ma\u017eiau nei infliacija. Jie tikisi ~ 3% per metus (arba dar blogiau) kasmet. \u201eInvestuotojai tur\u0117t\u0173 b\u016bti pasiruo\u0161\u0119, kad per ateinant\u012f de\u0161imtmet\u012f akcij\u0173 gr\u0105\u017ea b\u016bt\u0173 ma\u017eesn\u0117 nei \u012fprastas j\u0173 veiklos rezultat\u0173 pasiskirstymas, palyginti su obligacijomis ir infliacija.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><strong>S&#038;P 500 gr\u0105\u017eos sekan\u010dio de\u0161imtme\u010dio tikimybi\u0173 pasiskirstymas (pagal GS)<\/strong><br \/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy lazy-hidden alignnone wp-image-338445\" data-lazy-type=\"image\" src=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GaM-q0CbUAM3n8N.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"452\" srcset=\"\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-338445\" src=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GaM-q0CbUAM3n8N.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"452\" srcset=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GaM-q0CbUAM3n8N.jpg 1070w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GaM-q0CbUAM3n8N-300x226.jpg 300w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GaM-q0CbUAM3n8N-1024x771.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GaM-q0CbUAM3n8N-768x579.jpg 768w, https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/GaM-q0CbUAM3n8N-250x188.jpg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\"\/><br \/>\u0160altinis: Goldman Sachs Investment Research<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Mano kolega Benas Carlsonas palaidojo led\u0105, kai atliko vis\u0173 slenkan\u010di\u0173 10 met\u0173 laikotarpi\u0173, siekian\u010di\u0173 1925 m., tyrim\u0105. Jis nustat\u0117, kad ma\u017eiau nei 9 % i\u0161 t\u0173 10 met\u0173 laikotarpi\u0173 gr\u0105\u017ea buvo 3 % ar ma\u017eesn\u0117. Visi \u0161ie de\u0161imtme\u010dio laikotarpiai vyko jau min\u0117tomis GFC epochomis, 1970-aisiais arba depresijos laikais.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Kitaip tariant, jei prognozavote 10 met\u0173 3% metin\u0119 gr\u0105\u017e\u0105, taip pat prognozuojate ret\u0173 ir istorini\u0173 masto ekonomin\u0119 audr\u0105. Bent jau taip buvo visais kitais de\u0161imtme\u010dio laikotarpiais, kai rinkos gr\u0105\u017ea buvo 3% per metus arba 1% reali\u0105ja verte.<\/p>\n<p>Prognozuoti vienoki\u0105 ar kitoki\u0105 ekonomin\u0119 nelaim\u0119 per ateinan\u010dius 10 met\u0173 n\u0117ra daug galimybi\u0173; jums bus sunku pagalvoti apie bet kur\u012f de\u0161imtmet\u012f, kai pasaulio ekonomikos nei\u0161tikt\u0173 ka\u017ekokia ar kita ekonomin\u0117 nelaim\u0117. Bet tai visai kitokia diskusija nei 3% kasmet 10 met\u0173.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Tai nutiko vakar per Jasono Zweigo knyg\u0173 vakar\u0117l\u012f, skirt\u0105 i\u0161leisti tre\u010di\u0105j\u012f Beno Grahamo leidim\u0105, <em>Protingas investuotojas<\/em>. Kambarys buvo u\u017epildytas Grahamo ir Zweigo gerb\u0117j\u0173, kuriuos ved\u0117 Joshas Wolfe&#8217;as i\u0161 Lux Capital. (75-osios knygos pirminio i\u0161leidimo metin\u0117s.) Sal\u0117je buvo keletas indeksuotoj\u0173, bet daugiausiai su priva\u010diais kreditais ir rizikos kapitalo darbuotojais kalb\u0117jausi.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Klausim\u0173 ir atsakym\u0173 metu ka\u017ekas i\u0161k\u0117l\u0117 Goldmano prognoz\u0119. Mane nustebino (ir linksminosi), kad rizikos kapitalistai skepti\u0161kai \u017ei\u016br\u0117jo \u012f sprogstam\u0105 nauj\u0173 technologij\u0173 potencial\u0105 sukurti didesn\u0119 ekonomin\u0119 veikl\u0105, svarbias, vertingas naujoves ir, \u017einoma, tolesn\u012f rinkos laim\u0117jim\u0105.<\/p>\n<p class=\"p3\">Ne\u012fsivaizduoju, k\u0105 kitas de\u0161imtmetis atne\u0161 S&#038;P500 gr\u0105\u017eos at\u017evilgiu, bet taip pat ir niekas kitas. Manau, kad ekonomin\u0117 nauda, \u200b\u200bkuri\u0105 matysime technologij\u0173 srityje, pateisina didesnes rinkos kainas. Tik ne\u017einau kiek auk\u0161\u010diau; Mano slaptas \u012ftarimas, kad vienas procentas realios gr\u0105\u017eos per ateinan\u010dius 10 met\u0173 yra pernelyg konservatyvus.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\">***<\/p>\n<p>\u017dinoma, galite rasti ir kit\u0173 j\u016bs\u0173 portfeliui palankesni\u0173 prognozi\u0173. Pavyzd\u017eiui, JP Morgan mano, kad JAV akcij\u0173 gr\u0105\u017ea per ateinan\u010dius 20 met\u0173 kasmet sieks 7,8%. Tai labiau atitinka istorinius vidurkius.<\/p>\n<p>Ta\u010diau vis tiek prognoz\u0117s palankesn\u0117s <em>remiasi<\/em> apie prognozes.<\/p>\n<p>Vietoj to u\u017eduokite sau \u0161\u012f paprast\u0105 klausim\u0105: kiek \u017emoni\u0173, \u017evelgdami per 10 met\u0173, padar\u0117 teisingas, ne\u012fprastas prognozes? A\u0161 nekalbu apie istorin\u0117s gr\u0105\u017eos ekstrapoliavim\u0105 \u012f priek\u012f &#8211; &#8222;<em>Tarkime, kad bendra gr\u0105\u017ea vidutini\u0161kai per metus yra 8%.<\/em>\u201c, o \u0161tai kod\u0117l rinkos tur\u0117t\u0173 sugr\u012f\u017eti <em>X %<\/em> prie\u0161 sutarim\u0105 <em>Y%<\/em> ateinan\u010dius de\u0161imt i\u0161 eil\u0117s 12 m\u0117nesi\u0173 laikotarpi\u0173. Jei pa\u017ei\u016br\u0117tume \u012f pakankamai 10 met\u0173 prognozes, ka\u017ekas atsitiktinai tai padarys teisingai. Ta\u010diau negaliu prisiminti, kad kas nors i\u0161 did\u017eiojo Volstryto banko i\u0161 tikr\u0173j\u0173 u\u017edirbt\u0173 pinig\u0173 prognozuodamas rinkas pra\u0117jus de\u0161imtme\u010diui.<\/p>\n<p>Mums visiems bus geriau, jei pripa\u017e\u012fstame, kad sp\u0117lioti gr\u0105\u017e\u0105 per ateinan\u010dius 10 ar 20 met\u0173 yra kvailas reikalas. Tai tikrai n\u0117ra b\u016bdas valdyti savo portfel\u012f\u2026<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<p><em>Anks\u010diau<\/em>:<br \/>Prognozavimo ir numatymo diskusijos<\/p>\n<p><em><br \/>\u0160altiniai<\/em>:<br \/>3% akcij\u0173 rinkos gr\u0105\u017ea ateinant\u012f de\u0161imtmet\u012f?<br \/>pateik\u0117 Benas Carlsonas<br \/>Sveiko proto turtas, 2024 m. spalio 22 d<\/p>\n<\/p>\n<div class=\"printfriendly pf-button pf-button-content pf-alignleft\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"lazy lazy-hidden pf-button-img\" data-lazy-type=\"image\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/printfriendly-button.png\" alt=\"Patogus spausdinimas, PDF ir el\" style=\"width: 112px;height: 24px;\"\/><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"pf-button-img\" src=\"https:\/\/cdn.printfriendly.com\/buttons\/printfriendly-button.png\" alt=\"Patogus spausdinimas, PDF ir el\" style=\"width: 112px;height: 24px;\"\/><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><br \/>\n<br \/><a href=\"https:\/\/ritholtz.com\/2024\/10\/3-great-depression-gfc-1970s-2020s\/\">Source link <\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>K\u0105 bendro turi Did\u017eioji depresija, Did\u017eioji finans\u0173 kriz\u0117, 1970-\u0173j\u0173 stagnacija ir ateinantys 10 met\u0173? Jei esate \u201eGoldman Sachs\u201c strategas, tada daug. Bent jau jei prognozuosite rinkos gr\u0105\u017e\u0105 per ateinant\u012f de\u0161imtmet\u012f (lol), galite pamatyti ne\u012ftik\u0117tin\u0173 pana\u0161um\u0173. ICYMI: Davidas Kostinas ir jo strateg\u0173 komanda mato 72 % tikimyb\u0119, kad S&#038;P 500 indeksas bus prastesnis u\u017e i\u017edo vertybinius [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":900,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[1372,1373,1370,1369,1371],"class_list":["post-899","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomika-finansai-bankininkyste","tag-1970ieji","tag-2020ieji","tag-depresija","tag-didzioji","tag-gfc"],"aioseo_notices":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/899","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=899"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/899\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/900"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=899"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=899"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/europaskolos.lt\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=899"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}